How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.