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During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister emerged as the exclusive European Union leader to back the Republican candidate. This alignment was expected, given the Hungarian leader's championing of contentious theories including the "great replacement" theory and his restrictions against press independence. Observers point out that Mr Orbán practically laid the groundwork for the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon once praising him as Trump's forerunner.

Campaign Assistance Before Hungary's Polls

Recently, with key votes in Hungary just approaching in six months, the American leader returned some political favors. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth term in office governing a nation he describes as an non-liberal system, his ruling party currently trails in opinion polls. A meeting to Washington produced beyond a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured far more significant campaign boosts.

Waivers and Economic Protections

Although earlier admonishing EU countries on the imperative to halt all resource supplies from Russia, and threatening sanctions against countries still to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump agreed to provide a particular exclusion for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. As Orbán stated, the American leadership also pledged to offer a fiscal buffer to Budapest should it runs into any later issues, particularly since the European Union is still blocking large sums from the EU to the nation because of rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this deal remain somewhat murky. But the US president has shown his inclination to help out ideological allies when the United States provided a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. Although Orbán did not secure a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks still proved a successful endeavor.

European Apprehensions and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention likely highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the forthcoming polls, prior to which the opposition candidate, Magyar, holds a clear edge in surveys. EU chiefs know not to anticipate reliable policies from the Trump administration, and have grown used to the Trump's attempts to undermine the European Union. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – secured through an agreement to buy US gas and nuclear energy – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to end imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian petroleum, these two countries, have contributed well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the blocking vote to stymie progress in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• As Europe strives to develop a cohesive plan for backing Ukraine, and enhancing its leverage in any later diplomatic discussions, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table continues to be a major hurdle.

Challenger's Position

Mr Magyar has steered clear of promising a significant change on the war in Ukraine, and directed his efforts on internal matters, while highlighting the importance for the country to start acting as a constructive EU member. Following persistent provocations, EU officials can only hold out hope. Orbán's disregard to fundamental European principles, including the protection of minority groups and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the European Union. His continued obstructionism toward the Ukraine issue threatens to weaken its security prospects.